Comparative forecast of passenger transportation in long haul railway and long-distance bus service

Abstract

Problem. The article presents methodological approaches to determining the volume of passen-ger service in long-distance railway connections and intercity bus services in Ukraine, which are expected in the coming years. Goal. The purpose of the study is to increase the reliability of the information base for making informed management decisions on the further development of the transport passenger complex. Methodology. In the process of research there was used a set of methods of expert assessment and logical analysis of possible factors influencing; economic and mathematical modeling; formalized extrapolation methods to determine the predictive pa-rameters of influencing factors. Results. The forecast values of the number of transported pas-sengers and the values of passenger turnover in long-distance railway and intercity bus connec-tions in the short-term period are obtained. Originality. To estimate the forecast values of pas-senger traffic there was used the combination of methods of correlation-regression analysis and forecasting the magnitude of factors by the method of variable average. Practical value. The study of the patterns of passenger traffic dynamics revealed that in the next two years no signifi-cant changes are expected in the volume of work of both kinds of transport. However, in long-distance railway transport it is possible to increase passenger traffic by 1.6 % (0.74 million pas-sengers) and, accordingly, the annual passenger turnover will increase by 2.2 %. In the inter-city bus service, a slight decrease in the volume of passenger traffic by 0.8 % (0.93 million pas-sengers) is possible, and the rate of decrease in annual passenger turnover will be 0.5 %. In the conditions of constant reduction of the population of Ukraine the most effective mechanism of ensuring further sustainable development of both types of passenger transportation is constant adjustment of tariff policy on the principles of flexibility and bonus tariff formation under condi-tion of continuous improvement of services quality.